Global cotton production to be lower in 2015-16

World 2015-16 cotton production is projected at 99.8 million bales, 16 per cent below last season. India and China account for over half of the global crop, with India contributing 27 per cent and China supplying 24 per cent of the 2015-16 production, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated.

World cotton production has followed global cotton prices lower, with a fourth consecutive crop decline this season. Harvested area is estimated at 30.9 million hectares, the lowest since 2009-10. The global yield is projected at 702 kg/hectare, compared with 762 kg/hectare last season and 2013-14’s record of 799 kg/hectare.

USDA’s April decrease of 420,000 bales in the 2015-16 world production estimate - largely in Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, and Brazil - pushed the global crop below 100 million bales for the first time since 2003-04. Of the major producing countries in 2015-16, only Australia’s crop is expected to be higher than the year before.

Global cotton consumption in 2015-16 is estimated at 109.6 million bales, less than 1 per cent (600,000 bales) below the preceding season but similar to the previous 3-year average. With crop shortfalls around the globe this season, world cotton mill use will exceed production for the first time since 2009-10.

China - the leading cotton spinner - is forecast to use 32.5 million bales of raw cotton in 2015-16, slightly below a year ago as yarn imports remain an important component for the textile industry. On the other hand, India’s mill use is projected unchanged in 2015-16 at 24.5 million bales after rising for three consecutive seasons. However, consumption is expected higher in Bangladesh and Vietnam, where 2015-16 mill use is forecast near 5.8 million bales and 5.1 million bales, respectively. Textile and apparel expansion in these countries has continued as production costs - mainly labuor – remain relatively low.

World cotton trade is projected at 34.8 million bales for 2015-16, about 2 per cent below the previous season and 25 per cent lower than 2012-13’s record of 46.5 million bales. Lower imports by China have largely reduced the amount of raw cotton that has been traded over the last several seasons, although increases by a number of other countries have partially offset China’s reduction. In 2015-16, China is forecast to import only 5 million bales of raw cotton, compared with 24.5 million bales 4 years ago. Bangladesh , on the other hand, is expected to become the leading cotton importer this season (with imports near 5.7 million bales) as the country’s textile industry continues its expansion.

Despite lower exports by the US, most major cotton exporting countries are projected to have increased shipments in 2015-16. The decrease for the US is largely attributable to this season’s reduced crop, which limited exportable supplies. Cotton exports for India are forecast near 5.8 million bales in 2015-16, up 37 per cent from a year ago. Australia’s exports are expected to expand to nearly 2.8 million bales, or 15 per cent above the 2014-15 level. Meanwhile, cotton exports by Brazil are projected at 4.3 million bales in 2015-16, 10 percent higher than last season.

With world cotton consumption exceeding production for the first time in several seasons, global 2015-16 ending stocks are estimated to decline 9 per cent from 2014-15’s record to 102.2 million bales. USDA’s April world stock reduction of 1.1 million bales was attributable to a number of estimate revisions, including lower beginning stocks, lower production, and higher consumption.

The largest stock revisions in April were noted for China and India, where ending stocks were reduced 500,000 bales and 350,000 bales, respectively, due to larger demand projections. At the end of 2015-16, these two countries are forecast to control 73 per cent of global cotton stocks; by comparison, Brazil and the US - the next largest stock holders - together will account for 9 per cent of the total in 2015-16. Based on the latest estimate, the global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 93 per cent, down from 102 per cent last season and compared with a recent low of 40 per cent in 2009-10.