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Jul 22, 2009
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China says exports may bottom out

By
Reuters
Published
Jul 22, 2009

SINGAPORE, July 22 (Reuters) - The pace of decline in China's exports could ease later this year while the country's stable yuan policy will benefit the global economy, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said on Wednesday 22 July.



"Overall, China's economy is stabilising and improving," Chen told reporters after a two-day APEC meeting in Singapore. "As for exports in the second half, we'll have to look at the global economic situation. If the global economy improves, the pace of export decline should ease."

Trade officials at the gathering discussed ways to revive global trade and pledged measures to fight protectionism.

Any sustained recovery in China's exports would relieve some pressure on the government, which has launched a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package while boosting bank credit.

Chen said he was confident that China would be able to maintain its share of global trade, which the World Trade Organisation expects to fall 10 percent in 2009.

"The renminbi (yuan) has stabilised and the stability of the renminbi will have a positive impact on the global economic recovery," he said when asked whether China might resort to weakening the currency to help spur exports.

China allowed the yuan to appreciate steadily against the dollar after its landmark currency revaluation in 2005, but the rise came to a halt in July 2008 as the global crisis struck.

Beijing has resisted calls by some local exporters to lower the yuan's value to spur sales for fear of sparking competitive currency falls around the globe and fanning criticism from Washington, which has been arguing for a firmer yuan.

The yuan CNY=CFXS was hovering near 6.83 per dollar on Wednesday 22 July.

China's June exports fell 21.4 percent from a year earlier compared with May's slide of 26.4 percent, while June imports were 13.2 percent lower, rebounding from a 25.2 percent fall in May as domestic investment and consumption firmed.

The world's third-largest economy grew a faster-than-expected 7.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from 6.1 percent in the first quarter and raising expectations of hitting the full-year target of 8 percent.

Domestic trade has been booming as some exporters turned to the home market as orders from overseas clients fell, Chen said.

China's recovery is a boon for other Asian countries that have traditionally relied on exports for growth, but analysts say any meaningful recovery in global trade will hinge on a recovery in the United States and other developed economies.

(Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Kazunori Takada)

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